Inside Story: FIDE World Championship Preview

Editor's note: This story first appeared in the November 2024 issue of Chess Life. Consider becoming a US Chess member for more content like this — access to digital editions of both Chess Life and Chess Life Kids is a member benefit, and you can receive print editions of both magazines for a small add-on fee.

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The first Chinese world champion defends his title this month against a grandmaster who is looking to become — by far — the youngest champ ever.

The World Chess Championship starts Nov. 25 in Singapore, and 18-year-old GM Gukesh Dommaraju, of India, is looking to take the crown from champion GM Ding Liren.

If he wins, Gukesh would be the youngest world champion ever, easily breaking the record set by GM Garry Kasparov, who was 22 when he won it in 1985. And Gukesh was only 17 when he won the right to challenge Ding by winning the 2024 Candidates Tournament, held in Toronto.

How they got here

It was a bit of a surprise when Gukesh won this year’s Candidates Tournament by a half-point. He was seeded into the Candidates Tournament after he placed second in the 2023 FIDE Circuit; the winner, American GM Fabiano Caruana, was already qualified for the Candidates. Gukesh won the  Candidates in a dramatic last round, in which he held off American GM Hikaru Nakamura while Caruana and Russian GM Ian Nepomniachtchi, either of whom could have forced a playoff by winning, battled to an epic 109-move draw.

Ding, 31, is of course the reigning world champion, having defeated GM Ian Nepomniachtchi in a thrilling tiebreaker in last year’s match. He also took an unlikely route to the title: He finished second in the 2022 Candidates Tournament and made it into the match when GM Magnus Carlsen, still the world’s highest-rated player, resigned his title.

What’s happened to Ding?

After winning the title, however, Ding didn’t play for nine months. Since the beginning of last year, his rating has fallen from 2811 to 2728, and his spot in the world rankings from second to 22nd (on the live rankings). Gukesh, meanwhile, started the year in the 25th spot on the official ratings list, and is now up to number five.

Ding recently told The Straits Times that “I don’t know if I will ever reach that level again.” Always very honest about his emotional state, he added, “I’m not at my lowest and have walked out of the darkness from the last 1½ years … I’ve moved past that now and I feel like I have been playing decent chess but have not been winning.”

The champion added that he’s ready to prove his doubters wrong: “I like the fact that the media are saying this and the feeling of being the underdog. I’ll then surprise them.”

The Rules

The match format calls for up to 14 classical games (40/2, then G/30, with a 30-second increment kicking in at move 41). If the classical portion ends in a tie, Ding and Gukesh will play rapid and, if necessary, blitz tiebreak games at progressively faster time controls — faster than last year’s match between Ding and Nepomniachtchi.

First up is a four-game mini-match at G/15 with a 10-second increment; if that’s a tie as well, the next step is a two-game mini-match at G/10 with a 5-second increment. From there, it goes to blitz: two games of G/3 with a 2-second increment. If that’s still tied, they go to a single game of G/3+2. And if that’s drawn, they switch colors and play again, over and over until there’s a decisive game.

No draws by agreement are allowed before Black’s 40th move.

The first game is set for Monday, Nov. 25; tiebreaks, if they’re needed, are scheduled for Dec. 13.

Head-to-head

Historically, world championship contenders are veterans of the tournament scene, and thus have played each other many times. That’s not the case here, for a few reasons — Gukesh’s youth, Ding’s layoff, and post-COVID travel complications are the three big ones.

The two have played six serious games according to the databases, including three at classical time controls. Of these three, Ding has won twice as Black at the Tata Steel super-tournament (last year and again this year), and he drew with Gukesh as Black at this summer’s Sinquefield Cup, in St. Louis. They knew by then that they’d be facing off for the title, so they may not have pulled out all the stops. Below are both of Ding's victories and their most recent draw:

What’s at Stake

In addition to the title, the prize fund totals $2.5 million. Each player will get $200,000 for each game they win, and the rest of the prize fund will be divided equally. If the match ends 7½–6½ with 13 decisive games or 8–6 with all decisive games, or if the match goes to tiebreakers, the winner will get $1.3 million and the loser $1.2 million.

US Chess Coverage

US Chess will cover the 2024 World Championship at Chess Life Online. With games beginning at 3 a.m. EST, we will likely have reports and game annotations up by mid-afternoon of that day. We will also share printable bulletins throughout the match. Annotators include GM Joel Benjamin, IM John Watson, IM Robert Shlyakhtenko, and WGM Tatev Abrahamyan.

Keep up with annotated games and photos from our daily reports here. We will also have a complete wrap-up in a future issue of Chess Life.

What’s Your Prediction?

Our own Bryan Tillis solicited the predictions from a number of top players for the video below. Who you got? Add your own predictions in the comments!