Spirited Play Gets Nepo Out Of Trouble, Holds Onto Lead

courtesy Stev Bonhage

Please download today's printable bulletin to read along with GM Liang's annotations!

In some competitions, the outcome of a previous event will affect the probability of a certain outcome occurring in a later event. For instance, believers in the power of “Big Mo” (momentum) might argue that a basketball player who has made several baskets in a row is “heating up” and has a higher probability of making future baskets than their overall shooting percentage would suggest.

courtesy David Llada

Early in the 2023 FIDE World Championship, there were concerns that GM Ian Nepomniachtchi would hit his stride and become even harder to beat. Or, a few days later, that he would not be able to recover after a couple subpar games against GM Ding Liren. Instead, we were given a series of games that functioned as relatively independent events, with each player sticking to their guns. Ding was careful, slow, but dangerously precise. Nepomniachtchi, in contrast, would live or die by his intuition, and the two would continue to produce marvelous games.

courtesy Stev Bonhage

Entering the second half of the match, the narrative has once again shifted. The outcome of game eight would be, for better and for worse, highly dependent on both the result and trajectory of game seven.

From the jump, Ding had a “cannonball” of an opening surprise with 9. Ra2!?, putting Nepomniachtchi on the defense in the first Nimzo-Indian of the match. Nepo defended well, and it was probably the sharpest — not to mention riskiest —opening experiment Ding had tried this match. By move 16 he was objectively in trouble, but at the same time was in a position that would be much easier to play than defend against. After letting a promising position turn into a loss the previous round, he clearly was ready to keep White’s winning streak alive, even it meant adopting an uncharacteristically uncompromising strategy.

courtesy Stev Bonhage

Then, one error from Nepomniachtchi (even though he spent ten minutes on the move) on move 22 allowed Ding to seize a concrete advantage beginning with his accurate 24. Rd2!. After another careful eight-minute think, Nepomniachtchi blundered! Ding thought for ten minutes, and played the best move. After Nepo’s forced recapture, the engines were screaming that Ding had an absolutely crushing “quiet move” with 26. Rd3!!.

But, two seconds later, Ding plays the second-best move, pushing the d-pawn to the seventh rank. I won’t get into every subsequent miscalculation, but suffice it to say the pattern repeated itself from here. One highlight came with Nepomniachtchi’s “brilliant” 31. … Qh4?!?, which actually blundered a rook, but required the calculation of a deeply counterintuitive king walk to realize that White would not be allowing a perpetual check. Ding took only three minutes to decline the “gift,” giving up his advantage in the process.

courtesy Anna Shtourman

Would Ding have played differently with more time on the clock? Sure! But it’s not so much that he was in dire time pressure as early as move 24, but rather that his previous, cautious approach of double-checking and spending several minutes evaluating the consequences of moves he knows he wants to play had let him down. It’s hard to imagine him making several of the same quick decisions before yesterday’s game.

Nepomniachtchi, on the other hand, is still exactly the player he has been his whole match (and career). When forced to make difficult decisions on the defensive, he often relies too much on “feel” and can be exposed by a concrete calculator. But calculation takes time, and when it comes to practical decisions, Nepomniachtchi’s intuition is unparalleled.

Nepo has resting "Ke4!!" face (courtesy Anna Shtourman)

Off the board, another dramatic storyline was brewing, as one Reddit user realized that an anonymous “1500” account on Lichess had played the same 9. Ra2 variation against another anonymous “1500”. But that 1500 had blitz and bullet ratings over 2700. And each of their accounts were created on the same day, a little under two months before the start of the match.

These two accounts, it turns out, have played almost 200 games against each other, and have not played anyone else. Could it be? Ding’s only response was to say that he had no idea what the reporter was talking about, and Rapport refused to even say “no comment” when asked. Perhaps this will decrease the odds of the next six games playing out independently of what preceded.

Today's annotations come once again from GM Awonder Liang. Liang is a 20-year-old undergraduate at the University of Chicago. Born and raised in Madison, Wisconsin, Liang is the third-youngest American to earn the grandmaster title. He has won two World Youth championships and competed in four U.S. Championships, including a tie for third in the 2022 edition.

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