Greg Handicaps the Candidates

Excitement mounts for the 2016 Candidates Tournament to determine a challenger to Magnus Carlsen. New York was just announced as the venue for the World Championship, so American fans can look forward to watching that battle on Eastern Standard Time Zone, and many will plan a visit to watch. But first things first: predicting the winner of the upcoming Candidates. Everyone thinks they have a good idea as to who can win and who can’t win, but as far as I can tell, the tournament is wide open. I’m going to rank the players in order from 1^st-8^th, but before I do that we should talk about the math of these predictions. Below is a list of all of the players and their current up to date FIDE ratings.

Fabiano Caruana: 2794

Anish Giri: 2793

Levon Aronian: 2792

Hikaru Nakamura: 2790

Veselin Topalov: 2780

Viswanathan Anand: 2762

Sergey Karjakin: 2760

Peter Svidler: 2751

If you use the mathematical formula that predicts results based on rating, the top score is expected to be about 7.4 points out of 14, while the lowest score is expected to be 6.4 out of 14. The point is that according to the math of the rating system, every participant in this event is extremely evenly matched. You may have a feeling that Caruana is definitely stronger than Topalov, but the rating difference is just 15 points. Just think about people you know that are 15 points higher rated than you, and tell me honestly if you think there is much of a strength differential there? So in the end, I’m pretty much going on my instincts because if I just pay attention to the math and statistics, this article would be very boring. It would tell you that about four people have an almost identical chance to win, with two players with just a slightly smaller chance, and two other players who still have a chance but it’s a bit lower.  So instead, here is my personal ranking of the players, starting with the least chance to win and going to the greatest chance to win.

8^th – Peter Svidler (4% chance to win)

• Highest Rating Ever: 2769
• Strongest Tournament Victory: World Cup 2011
• Percentage Against Carlsen: 54% (2 wins, 1 loss, 11 draws)

Svidler is of course a super strong player and made it into this tournament via the FIDE World Cup. However, Peter is lower rated than the rest of the field and also had a monumental collapse against Karjakin in the World Cup final. That doesn’t inspire me with confidence when he’s playing 7 slightly higher rated opponents in what would be the most nerve-wracking tournament of his life.

7^th – Sergey Karjakin (6% chance to win)

• Highest Rating Ever: 2788
• Strongest Tournament Victory: World Cup 2015
• Percentage Against Carlsen: 45% (1 win, 3 losses, 15 draws)

Aside from the FIDE World Cup, Karjakin doesn’t win too many elite tournaments. His most prominent recent victory was probably in Norway 2014, where he started the tournament with an astounding 4-0. He played well in this tournament, but I remember being mystified by some moves he made in his final game against Topalov. Karjakin is good, but definitely not one of the front runners. After these two, this is where it gets really tough to rank the players.

6^th- Levon Aronian (12% chance to win)

• Highest Rating Ever: 2825
• Strongest Tournament Victory: Sinquefield Cup 2015
• Percentage Against Carlsen: 43% (5 wins, 12 losses, 31 draws)

Levon has a history of coming up short in the big money tournaments, and therefore I’m going to pick him as 6^th. Can he win? Absolutely yes. Would it surprise me a little bit? Maybe a little bit, but he did win the Sinquefield Cup against an even stronger field than this. I’m going to go with Levon’s history of not performing well in the biggest events though as I don’t think this is always a complete accident. Everyone prepares at an even higher level, saves their most important opening preparation for this event, and faces emotional and psychological pressures differently. Thus far, Aronian has not shown a good track record. It could just be due to random variance as any player could just randomly have good results in one tournament and poorer results in another tournament. But, absent other information, I’ll bet against Aronian.

5^th – Anish Giri (13% chance to win)

• Highest Rating Ever: 2798
• Strongest Tournament Victory: Reggio Emilia 2012
• Percentage Against Carlsen: 54% (1 win, 11 draws)

I may be making a big mistake here, but to be as highly rated as Giri and to have literally never won a major chess tournament requires some exceptional talent. He is easily strong enough to win this event, but I’m going to assume there is something in his style of play that leads him towards draw heavy results. On the plus side, because this tournament is so evenly matched, there is some chance a +2 performance could win it (doubtful though). The other thing Giri has going against him is that the first tiebreaker is head to head (this will often be tied), and the second tiebreaker is number of total wins. Giri should suck at that second tiebreaker, and I think the chances of there being a tie are quite high.

4^th – Veselin Topalov (14% chance to win)

• Highest Rating Ever: 2816
• Strongest Tournament Victory: Norway Chess 2015
• Percentage Against Carlsen: 43% (5 wins, 8 losses, 9 draws)

Of all the players in this event, I feel like Topalov is the one who is most likely to either have an amazing result or a terrible one.  Topalov somehow manages to maintain a top rating despite horrible performances like his 2.5/9 in the London Chess Classic, which of course means that in other tournaments he has outstanding performances, such as his win in the Norway Grand Prix. It may be a serious error in judgement ranking him above guys like Aronian and Giri as objectively they feel like they are a bit stronger than Veselin, but the fact remains that Topalov has won these tournaments before, and has the type of combative style that could see him emerge from the pack. Over the long run, I expect someone like Giri to get a slightly higher average score than Topalov, but Topalov is capable of going on some serious hot streaks, and the only place that matters is first place.

[pgn]

[Event "3rd Sinquefield Cup 2015"]
[Site "Saint Louis USA"]
[Date "2015.08.23"]
[White "Carlsen, M."]
[Black "Topalov, V."]
[Result "0-1"]
[ECO "B51"]
[WhiteElo "2853"]
[BlackElo "2816"]
[Annotator "Shahade"]
[PlyCount "80"]
[EventDate "2015.08.23"]

1. e4 c5 2. Nf3 d6 3. Bb5+ Nd7 4. O-O Ngf6 5. Re1 a6 6. Bd3 b5 7. c4 g5 $5 {As
you can see, Topalov fears no one and is willing to play speculative and risky
ideas. In a winner take all format, this isn't such a bad style of play} 8.
Nxg5 Ne5 9. Be2 bxc4 10. Na3 Rg8 11. Nxc4 Nxc4 12. d4 Nb6 13. Bh5 Nxh5 14. Qxh5
Rg7 15. Nxh7 Qd7 16. dxc5 dxc5 17. e5 Qc6 18. f3 Qg6 19. Nf6+ Kd8 20. Qxg6 Rxg6
21. Ne4 Bb7 22. h4 Rc8 23. h5 Rg8 24. Bd2 Nc4 25. Bc3 Bh6 26. Rad1+ Ke8 27. Rd3
Bf4 28. Nf2 Bc6 29. Nh3 Bg3 30. Re2 Bb5 31. Rd1 Bc6 32. Nf2 Bxe5 33. Ng4 Bxc3
34. bxc3 Kf8 35. Kf2 Rh8 36. Ne5 Nxe5 37. Rxe5 Be8 38. g4 f6 39. Re6 Bb5 40.
Rde1 Rc7 0-1[/pgn]

3rd – Viswanathan Anand (16% chance to win)

• Highest Rating Ever: 2817
• Strongest Tournament Victory: World Championship 2007-2013
• Percentage Against Carlsen: 48% (8 wins, 10 losses, 38 draws)

Obviously no one is desperate to watch another Anand vs. Carlsen match, but it wouldn’t blow my mind if we saw one. If you’re an NBA fan you probably know about future Hall of Famer Tim Duncan. Tim Duncan takes it easier in the regular seasons when the games don’t matter as much. He may sit out a few games, and when he does play, he won’t play huge minutes and go nuts putting his body on the line. But once the playoffs start, you see a more focused and determined Tim Duncan. This is how I see Anand these days. People have underestimated Anand before, and he showed what happens in 2014.

[pgn]

[Event "FIDE Candidates 2014"]
[Site "Khanty-Mansiysk RUS"]
[Date "2014.03.15"]
[White "Mamedyarov, S."]
[Black "Anand, V."]
[Result "0-1"]
[ECO "D11"]
[WhiteElo "2757"]
[BlackElo "2770"]
[Annotator "Shahade"]
[PlyCount "61"]
[EventDate "2014.03.13"]
[EventRounds "14"]
[EventCountry "RUS"]
[EventCategory "21"]

1. d4 d5 2. c4 c6 3. Nf3 Nf6 4. Qc2 dxc4 5. Qxc4 Bg4 6. Nbd2 Nbd7 7. g3 e6 8.
Bg2 Be7 9. Ne5 Bh5 10. Nxd7 Nxd7 11. O-O O-O 12. Nb3 a5 13. a4 Bb4 14. e4 e5
15. Be3 exd4 16. Bxd4 Kh8 $1 {A strong unassuming move from Anand. The idea is
to relocate the h5 bishop to f7 by playing ...f6. This also helps to control
the e5 square and to restrict white's pawn majority on the kingside.} 17. e5
Re8 18. f4 f6 19. exf6 Nxf6 20. Bf3 Bxf3 21. Rxf3 Re4 22. Re3 Rxe3 23. Bxe3 Qe8
24. Bb6 Qh5 25. Bd4 Re8 26. Rf1 Ng4 27. Qc2 c5 28. Nxc5 Rc8 29. Rd1 Bxc5 30.
Bxc5 h6 31. Kh1 0-1[/pgn]

I think it would be a serious mistake to underestimate him again. Anand has played on the biggest stage his entire career and he more than anyone knows what it takes to come through a Candidates tournament like this. Also, I think that deep inside Anand still feels that he has what it takes to beat Carlsen. Carlsen made a horrific blunder in the middle of the last World Championship match, and if Anand took advantage, it’s hard to say what would have happened in the rest of the contest. Anand moreso than anyone else knows that Carlsen is beatable in a match format. You are going to see the most dangerous version of Anand in this tournament, and I think that you only see this version of Anand in the biggest events these days. At the age of 46, super tournaments can take a lot of energy out of you, and Viswanathan is going to save that energy for the tournaments when the most is on the line.

2nd– Hikaru Nakamura (17% chance to win)

• Highest Rating Ever: 2816
• Strongest Tournament Victory: Tata Steel 2011
• Percentage Against Carlsen: 30% (12 losses, 18 draws)

This is Hikaru’s first ever Candidates tournament, and therefore he has no track record to speak of in events like this. However, surprisingly, Nakamura has very few tournament wins under his belt given his high rating and combative style of play. Maybe I’m just a homer and can’t resist ranking the American player higher than others, but something deep in my gut tells me that Hikaru has slightly better chances to win than a few of the past names that I’ve mentioned. I think a lot of it falls on Hikaru’s record against Carlsen. Hikaru has never defeated Carlsen and has lost about a dozen times. Meanwhile, Carlsen is not taking place in this tournament. If you turn all of Hikaru’s previous encounters with Carlsen into draws, he would have had quite a few tournament victories over the years. Meanwhile someone like Giri, who has never lost a single slow game to Carlsen, has managed to do so while at the same time not winning a single tournament. Hikaru’s greatest Achilles heel is not in this tournament, and that leaves a lot of potential for Hikaru to win the tournament, and then lose 7-0 against Carlsen in the World Championship Match. (all Hikaru fans – don’t worry I’m joking).

1^st – Fabiano Caruana (18% chance to win)

• Highest Rating Ever: 2844
• Strongest Tournament Victory: Sinquefield Cup 2014
• Percentage Against Carlsen: 43% (5 wins, 8 losses, 10 draws)

There is one thing that Fabiano has going for him that a lot of the above players don’t. Fabiano is good at winning tournaments, and if you want to face Carlsen for the World Championship, you have to win this tournament. Fabiano has won the Sinquefield Cup in 2014, Dortmund 2014, Baku 2014, Khanty-Mansiysk 2015 and Dortmund 2015. It’s true that a few of these were ties for first, but Caruana has shown himself very capable of having outstanding performances. I was particularly impressed with Caruana’s complete demolition of Dortmund in 2014, finishing with a massive score of 5.5/7. This was overshadowed a bit by the Sinquefield Cup performance, but his play in Dortmund was also extremely high quality.

[pgn]

[Event "42nd GM 2014"]
[Site "Dortmund GER"]
[Date "2014.07.19"]
[White "Caruana, F."]
[Black "Adams, Mi"]
[Result "1-0"]
[ECO "C67"]
[WhiteElo "2789"]
[BlackElo "2743"]
[Annotator "Shahade"]
[PlyCount "95"]
[EventDate "2014.07.12"]
[EventType "tourn"]
[EventRounds "7"]
[EventCountry "GER"]
[EventCategory "19"]
[Source "Mark Crowther"]
[SourceDate "2014.07.21"]

1. e4 e5 2. Nf3 Nc6 3. Bb5 Nf6 4. O-O Nxe4 5. d4 Nd6 6. Bxc6 dxc6 7. dxe5 Nf5
8. Qxd8+ Kxd8 9. h3 Bd7 10. Rd1 Be7 11. Nc3 Kc8 12. g4 Nh4 13. Nxh4 Bxh4 14.
Be3 b6 15. Rd2 c5 16. Nd5 Re8 17. Rad1 Bc6 18. Bf4 h6 19. Kg2 $1 {White's plan
in such positions is to get the kingside pawns moving. How can he do that? By
walking into this pin, with the idea of Re1, Bg3 followed by f4. It's a slow
plan but Adams could was unable to come up with anything to stop it and was
slowly ground down by Caruana.} Kb7 20. c4 a5 21. Re1 Rad8 22. Bg3 Bxg3 23.
Kxg3 f6 24. f4 Re6 25. Rdd1 fxe5 26. Rxe5 Red6 27. f5 a4 28. Kf4 b5 29. b3 a3
30. Ke4 b4 31. h4 R6d7 32. Rd2 Rf7 33. g5 hxg5 34. hxg5 Rh8 35. Kf4 Rh1 36. Rf2
Rg1 37. Ne7 Bh1 38. g6 Rf6 39. Rxc5 Rd6 40. Rb5+ Ka6 41. Nd5 Bxd5 42. Rxd5 Rxd5
43. cxd5 Kb6 44. f6 gxf6 45. Kf5 Kc5 46. Kxf6 Kxd5 47. g7 c5 48. Rf5+ 1-0[/pgn]

Note that I don’t have any single player as having too great of a chance to win, as I didn’t even have enough confidence to give a single player more than a 1 in 5 chance of winning. This just shows you how competitive the top players are with each other when you take Carlsen out of the mix. This tournament is probably the most wide open Candidates tournament yet. In the past, there were a few players like Ivanchuk, Andreikin and Mamedyarov, who while they are very strong, it was hard to see them actually winning it. This year, I can see all eight players feasibly winning.