Caruana Misses a Chance, Draws Game 8 vs. Carlsen

World Championship challenger Fabiano Caruana achieved a big advantage against Magnus Carlsen in today’s Game 8 of the World Championship, both on the board and the clock. However, in a position that needed active precision in order to keep the initiative Caruana faltered, playing a quiet move at the wrong moment and giving Carlsen a key tempo to consolidate his position. After that the game steadily petered out into an equal endgame and the game was agreed drawn; the match remains tied at 4-4 with four games to go.

To the pleasure of everyone watching, Caruana finally deviated from the Rossolimo Variation (1.e4 c5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bb5) in favor of the sharper Open Sicilian with 3.d4, finally forcing Magnus to show his hand. As expected by most analysts, Carlsen went with the Sveshnikov Sicilian, which has retained a solid reputation after being used with success by Boris Gelfand in the 2012 World Championship match against Viswanathan Anand. Norwegian Grandmaster Johan Salomon broke down why he felt the Sveshnikov Sicilian was the most likely choice from Team Magnus in case of 3.d4:

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Caruana chose a trendy sideline and was able to reach a dynamic middlegame with play on opposite sides of the board to the delight of fans, commentators, and the media. It’s unclear where Magnus left his preparation in the line, but the first key moment happened on Black’s 18^th move:

Here Magnus spent some time and eventually banged out 18...g5!?, after which a collective gasp was felt in the spectator room (I know, I was there!). Blood was now likely to be spilled. Fabi did not seem surprised by the move and continued along his plan with 19.c4, followed by 19...f4 20.Bc3. Then after 20...Bf5, Caruana spent 33 minutes thinking about his next move in the following position: While Fabiano was thinking on his 21^st move, the commentators and fans were all clued in – 21.c5! was a crusher—thematic from a human’s point of view, and given a fat evaluation upwards of ‘+2’ by Norweigian super-computer Sesse, which deeply analyzes all of Magnus’s games live. The main idea is that Black’s stronghold on d6 is torn apart, opening up lines for White’s pieces to eventually target Black’s weakened king. While spectators and the press debated about whether Caruana would ‘find’ c5, Anish Giri speculated on what could have gone wrong for Carlsen in the middlegame to reach this position:

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Eventually Fabi did play 21.c5, and while the chess world started getting ready to crown a new champion, he slipped up a few moves later, gifting a tempo that gave Carlsen the chance to equalize. Magnus took that slip and never looked back, drawing the game after 38 moves of play. Well, check out the full details in my annotations here:

[pgn] [Event "Carlsen-Caruana FIDE World Chess Champi"] [Date "2018.11.19"] [White "Caruana, Fabiano"] [Black "Carlsen, Magnus"] [Result "*"] [ECO "B33"] [WhiteElo "2832"] [BlackElo "2835"] [Annotator "IM Kostya Kavutskiy"] [PlyCount "75"] [EventDate "2018.??.??"] [WhiteTeam "United States"] [BlackTeam "Norway"] [WhiteTeamCountry "USA"] [BlackTeamCountry "NOR"] 1. e4 c5 2. Nf3 Nc6 3. d4 cxd4 4. Nxd4 Nf6 5. Nc3 e5 6. Ndb5 d6 7. Nd5 { One of the most important sidelines available to White against the Sveshnikov. It's likely that Team Caruana focused on preparing this line after seeing Magnus stick with the 2...Nc6 Sicilian.} (7. Bg5 {is the standard main line.} a6 8. Na3 b5 {and here White can choose between 9.Bxf6 and 9.Nd5, both with tons of theory and thousands of games.}) 7... Nxd5 8. exd5 Nb8 9. a4 { Following the modern trend.} (9. c4 {has been the historical main line. The idea behind playing 9.a4 is to keep the c4-square open for White's knight, which can utilize the route b5-a3-c4-b6 as happens in the game.}) 9... Be7 10. Be2 O-O 11. O-O Nd7 12. Bd2 $5 {An interesting choice, continuing to follow the latest trend in this variation.} (12. Kh1 {used to be the main line but recent games have seen Black equalizing comfortably.}) 12... f5 13. a5 a6 ( 13... Nf6 14. Be3 Bd7 15. Nxa7 f4 16. Bb6 Qe8 17. f3 $14 {and White was slightly better in Huschenbeth-Hracek Le Castella 2018.}) 14. Na3 e4 $146 { The first new move of the game. Based on the speed of Caruana's reply, it seemed likely that he still had analysis of this position.} (14... Nf6 { was previously seen in correspondence chess.} 15. Bb4 Bd7 16. Nc4 Bb5 17. Nb6 Bxe2 18. Qxe2 Rb8 {and Black eventually held in Degtyaryov-Jones, Correspondence 2016, but over the board things are not the same. It remains to be seen where Caruana had a planned deviation.}) 15. Nc4 Ne5 16. Nb6 Rb8 17. f4 $1 {Giving Black a difficult choice, either trade off the strong pawn on e4 or give up the valuable outpost on e5.} (17. Nxc8 $6 {would waste a lot of time in order to capture the passive bishop on c8.} Rxc8 {And Black's position is excellent.}) 17... exf3 18. Bxf3 g5 $2 {This aggressive move turns out to be the start of Black's problems.} ({On Twitter, Anish Giri speculated that Carlsen's prep was instead to play} 18... f4 19. Ra4 {and only then} g5 { which is logical in that it saves a tempo in certain lines if Black can play without g5. The engine confirms that this was indeed more accurate, so it's not clear whether Magnus had mixed up his prep or simply chose the wrong move-order on his own.}) 19. c4 {Caruana looked unfazed and quickly continued with his plan.} f4 20. Bc3 $1 {Caruana spent several minutes here, indicating that he was out of prep but perhaps quite happy with the position. Magnus continued to spend time on each move, indicating that he was not at all comfortable with the position at hand.} Bf5 {At this point the engines started to give White a huge advantage with 21.c5, so this move seemed like an obvious mistake. However, it turns out that c5 was coming no matter what, and that Black's position had already turned sour starting with 17...g5.} (20... Qc7 { would stop c5 for the next move but misplace the queen. After} 21. Rc1 $16 { White will continue to build with b2-b4 and eventually breakthrough.}) (20... Bf6 {could be met with} 21. c5 $1 {anyways, as after} dxc5 22. d6 $1 {White creates a powerful d-pawn and threatens Qd5+.}) 21. c5 $1 {Fabiano spent his time on this move, but finally made it to the delight of both spectators and the press. In the post-game press conference, Fabi revealed that he didn't consider any move other than c5 in the position, and spent the entire 33 minute think calculating the various options. I (gently) criticized this use of time on Twitter, which led to some interesting discussions. Curious readers should visit Twitter to see more :)} Nxf3+ {Accepting White's pawn sacrifice.} (21... Bf6 {was the other choice for Black, allowing} 22. c6 $16 {which would grant White a big advantage, as this eventual passed pawn will be quite strong. }) 22. Qxf3 dxc5 23. Rad1 ({Perhaps stronger was the more active} 23. Rae1 { with idea} Bd6 (23... Bf6 {can be met with} 24. h4 $1 $16) 24. h3 $1 $18 { and Black lacks the e8-square for the queen, which means White can continue building up with force.}) 23... Bd6 24. h3 $2 {From a human point of view, this move is understandable, White wants to stop Black from playing g4. But it also gives Black a valuable tempo to consolidate his position, which Magnus is able to find. It is easy to criticize when you have the engine next to you, but we should keep in mind that there are many situations where a prophylactic move will be superior to the 'active move'. Alas, this is not one of those times.} ({As suggested by Fabiano after the game} 24. Qh5 $1 {was direct and objectively good. Based on his comments, it's not clear what exactly dissuaded Caruana from playing this move, other than not seeing a huge advantage in the line 24...Bg6 25. Qh6.} Bg6 25. Qh6 Rf7 {Perhaps Fabi underestimated the strength of} 26. Rfe1 $1 {Threatening Re6 and Rxg6. Without this move, White indeed doesn't have a clear follow-up after Qh6. There are alternatives along the way, such as 25.Qh3, but that is another non-obvious choice, even for a super-GM.}) (24. Nc4 {was also suggested by the engine, but is less clear, as it allows} g4 25. Qf2 f3 {which will always look unclear to any human. Analysis shows White is much better after} 26. Rfe1 $16 {though in any case a sharp struggle would ensue.}) 24... Qe8 $1 {A great transfer, Black covers the h5-square and prepares to play Qg6, followed by g5-g4 if allowed.} 25. Nc4 Qg6 26. Nxd6 {White is forced to make this trade as otherwise g5-g4 is quite annoying.} Qxd6 27. h4 {A good move. It's important for White to open Black's kingside while he has the chance.} gxh4 {Magnus spent 10 minutes here but was able to play the rest of the game with accuracy, holding without any issue.} 28. Qxf4 Qxf4 29. Rxf4 h5 30. Re1 Bg4 {Positions with opposite colored bishops are far from always drawn, but Black's bishop has an anchor (g4) and can defend against White's d-pawn, while the rooks and king are well placed.} 31. Rf6 Rxf6 32. Bxf6 Kf7 33. Bxh4 Re8 34. Rf1+ Kg8 35. Rf6 Re2 36. Rg6+ Kf8 37. d6 Rd2 {With White's pawn under lock and key there is nothing to play for.} 38. Rg5 {Here Caruana offered a draw, which was accepted after not much thought by Magnus. An exciting game!} *[/pgn]

After the game, Caruana was open about his thoughts: “Some minor disappointment because I thought at some point I had a very promising position, but I didn’t quite see at exactly which moment I had something very good. I mean I assumed there were more dangerous options along the way.” A somewhat-shaken Magnus agreed with Caruana’s assessment, and said “A bit of relief obviously since this was a tough game and he was the one who had all the chances. Yeah I’m happy to have survived it for sure.”

To Fabiano’s credit, he did not seemed too fazed about spoiling the opportunity, explaining that holding a big advantage doesn’t always work out and is rarely simple to convert.

GM Judit Polgar in the official commentary with IM Anna Rudolf summed it up nicely: “If you want to win a game, you have to play much sharper than this.” Tomorrow, Tuesday, November 20 will be a rest day—the match resumes with Game 9 on Wednesday, November 21^st. Whatever happens, it will surely lead to a thrilling finale. Four games to go! IM Kostya Kavutskiy is a professional chess player, coach, and writer, and can be found active on Twitter. Also make sure to check out his Patreon page for instructive chess analysis and advice for improvement. Interact with Eric Rosen, who is taking over our twitter@USChess using the hashtag #CarlsenCaruana.  Worldchess.com is the tournament website.