Who will win this year?
When previewing tournaments and predicting winners, many tend to over-rely on rating. I can’t tell you how many times I heard/read someone claim that the top 1-2 seeds are going to annihilate the field and no one else has any chance. In practice, this is rarely the case. Of course, ratings are important: They average what we’ve accomplished so far in our chess career, and our ratings are usually fairly accurate (whether we like to admit it or not). In major championships, though, there are other factors that I think can play a much bigger role, such as determination, consistency, fighting spirit, endurance, and nerves. Of course, the top seeds are usually among the favorites, but anything can happen. And the top seeds experience more pressure and expectations than any of the other players. The 2016 Candidates Tournament was a great example of this: Karjakin was one of the lowest seeds in the field, and many assumed he had virtually no chance to win. But Karjakin is one of the most determined chessplayers I’ve ever seen, and his tenacity certainly made up for the rating points he was short. Here are my predictions for who has the best chance to win this year's US Junior and US Junior Girls Championships.The US Junior Championship (Closed)
My Top 3 Picks
Any of these three players have an excellent chance to become the 2017 US Junior Champion.1. Ruifeng Li
Ruifeng Li is due to win the US Junior Championship. He's played in the event twice before, finishing 4th on his debut in 2015 and 3rd last year. Over the years, he's improved rapidly, winning numerous opens across the country, including the very strong Philadelphia and National Opens, and earning his GM title earlier this year.
He's also the most active competitor in the field. So far in 2017 alone, he's played in 14 Classical tournaments.
In 2015, I wrote my first report for the US Junior Closed about a hard-fought victory played by Li that featured a fascinating piece sacrifice (25...Ne5).
[pgn][Event "USA-ch U16"] [Site "Saint Louis"] [Date "2015.07.10"] [Round "4"] [White "Liou, Yian"] [Black "Li, Ruifeng"] [Result "0-1"] [ECO "B90"] [WhiteElo "2417"] [BlackElo "2394"] [SetUp "1"] [FEN "3q1rk1/1p1nr2b/p2p1b1p/P1PP1p2/1P1BpP2/1N6/4B2P/2RQ1RK1 b - - 0 25"] [PlyCount "29"] [EventDate "2015.07.07"] [EventType "tourn"] [EventRounds "9"] [EventCountry "USA"] [EventCategory "6"] [Source "Chessbase"] [SourceDate "2015.07.24"]25... Ne5 $5 26. fxe5 dxe5 27. Bb2 f4 28. d6 Rg7+ 29. Kh1 Kh8 30. Bc4 Qd7 31. Bd5 Qh3 32. Rg1 f3 33. Rxg7 Bxg7 34. Qf1 Qh4 35. Re1 Bf5 36. Nd2 Bh3 37. Rxe4 Bg2+ 38. Kg1 Qg5 39. h4 Qg3 0-1[/pgn]
While the sacrifice may've objectively been unsound, it was in the spirit of the all-or-nothing King's Indian Defense, and it presented his opponent with some serious practical problems. Li's fighting spirit combined with two years of serious experience make Li one of the most likely candidates to win the event.
2. Akshat Chandra
3. Awonder Liang
Underdogs Who Could Surprise
Josh Colas
Although Josh Colas is one of the lower rated players in the field, he's the 2nd most active player, competing in 12 tournaments in 2017 so far. He also currently has all three of the norms required for the IM title and will be eligible when his FIDE rating breaks 2400. And, it can't hurt that he's a part of the SPICE program at Webster University, the chess team that wins the Final Four College Championship year after year.Michael Brown
Michael Brown is currently an International Master who's taken a couple key steps on the way to GM: He has one norm, and his FIDE rating is above 2500. In 2015, Brown won 1st in both the Southern California Invitational State Championship and the Utah Open State Championship. Brown turned in a very solid US Junior performance last year, tying for 4th, and losing only one game out of 9 rounds. Here is one of Brown's strongest games where he defeated a super-grandmaster.[pgn][Event "25th Chicago Open 2016"] [Site "Chicago USA"] [Date "2016.05.27"] [Round "2.1"] [White "Yu Yangyi"] [Black "Brown, Michael William"] [Result "0-1"] [ECO "C84"] [WhiteElo "2737"] [BlackElo "2418"] [PlyCount "120"] [EventDate "2016.05.26"] [EventType "swiss"] [EventRounds "9"] [EventCountry "USA"] [Source "Mark Crowther"] [SourceDate "2016.05.30"]1. e4 e5 2. Nf3 Nc6 3. Bb5 a6 4. Ba4 Nf6 5. O-O Be7 6. d3 b5 7. Bb3 d6 8. a3 O-O 9. Nc3 Nb8 10. Re1 c6 11. Ne2 Nbd7 12. Ng3 Nc5 13. Ba2 Be6 14. b4 Bxa2 15. Rxa2 Ne6 16. a4 d5 17. Bd2 dxe4 18. dxe4 Nd7 19. Nf5 Bf6 20. Be3 Qc7 21. Nd2 a5 22. Qg4 Kh8 23. axb5 axb4 24. Rxa8 Rxa8 25. bxc6 Qxc6 26. Rc1 Ra2 27. Qd1 g6 28. Nh6 Kg7 29. Ng4 Bg5 30. Bxg5 Nxg5 31. h4 Ne6 32. h5 Nd4 33. h6+ Kf8 34. Ne3 Nf6 35. Rb1 Nxe4 36. Nxe4 Qxe4 37. Rxb4 Qh4 38. Rb8+ Ke7 39. Rb7+ Kf8 40. Rb8+ Ke7 41. Rb1 Qxh6 42. Qe1 Qh5 43. Nd5+ Kf8 44. Nf6 Qf5 45. Rb8+ Kg7 46. Ne8+ Kh6 47. Qe3+ Qf4 48. Qxf4+ exf4 49. Rb7 f5 50. Nf6 Rxc2 51. Rxh7+ Kg5 52. Rf7 Rc1+ 53. Kh2 Rf1 54. Nh7+ Kh6 55. Nf8 Rxf2 56. Rh7+ Kg5 57. Rg7 Nf3+ 58. Kh3 Ne5 59. Re7 Ng4 60. Re6 Rf1 0-1[/pgn]
Most Experienced, Least Active
Kayden Troff
While Grandmaster Troff undeniably has chances to win the event (and has won it before in 2014), he is a less active competitor than many of the other players (he’s only played in 3 tournaments so far this year), which makes his form hard to predict. Troff had a tough time at last year's US Junior, but that may've prepared him to have a much better tournament this time around.2nd Appearance
Nicolas Checa
Nicolas Checa is an International Master who recently earned his 1st GM Norm at the Philadelphia International. While Checa had a tough debut at the US Junior Championship last year, he did manage to achieve a victory against one of the top seeds, Akshat Chandra.Mika Brattain
Mika Brattain is a National Master who debuted at the US Junior in 2015. While Brattain also had a tough debut, he did manage draws against Jeffery Xiong and Ruifeng Li.Debuting in the Championship
Andrew Tang
Andrew Tang is an International Master with two GM norms. In addition, he was a 2016 National High School co-Champion, the 2017 Minnesota State Champion, and a SuperNationals K-12 co-Champion this past May. While he's new to the field, he currently has experience winning top events and will be an interesting addition.Bovey Liu
Bovey Liu is a National Master and 2016 Texas State High School Champion. He earned 3rd place at the prestigious 2016 Denker Tournament of High School Champions.The U.S. Junior Girls Championship (Closed)
My Top 3 Picks
1. Maggie Feng
[pgn][Event "ch-USA w 2017"] [Site "Saint Louis USA"] [Date "2017.04.04"] [Round "6.4"] [White "Feng, Maggie"] [Black "Yu, Jennifer R"] [Result "1-0"] [ECO "A07"] [WhiteElo "2162"] [BlackElo "2196"] [PlyCount "132"] [EventDate "2017.03.29"] [EventType "tourn"] [EventRounds "11"] [EventCountry "USA"] [EventCategory "2"] [Source "Mark Crowther"] [SourceDate "2017.04.10"]1. Nf3 d5 2. g3 Bg4 3. Bg2 Nd7 4. c4 c6 5. cxd5 cxd5 6. Qa4 Ngf6 7. Nc3 Bxf3 8. Bxf3 e6 9. O-O Bd6 10. d3 O-O 11. Bg2 a6 12. Qd1 b5 13. e4 d4 14. Ne2 e5 15. f4 Rc8 16. h3 Qb6 17. f5 Nc5 18. g4 Nfd7 19. g5 b4 20. f6 g6 21. h4 b3 22. a4 Rc7 23. h5 Rb8 24. hxg6 hxg6 25. Rf3 Kf8 26. Ng3 Ke8 27. Bh3 Kd8 28. Nf1 Nb7 29. Nh2 Rc5 30. Ng4 Kc7 31. Nh6 Rf8 32. Bd2 Nb8 33. Nxf7 Rxf7 34. Be6 Rf8 35. Bxb3 Nc6 36. Rb1 Kb8 37. Rh3 Nb4 38. Bxb4 Qxb4 39. Rh6 Na5 40. Be6 Rc7 41. Rxg6 Rh7 42. Rg8 Rxg8 43. Bxg8 Rh8 44. Bd5 Bf8 45. Rc1 Nb7 46. Qc2 Nc5 47. g6 Rh6 48. Bf7 Rh4 49. Kg2 Bh6 50. Kg3 Bxc1 51. Qxc1 Nxd3 52. g7 Nxc1 53. g8=Q+ Ka7 54. Kxh4 Qe1+ 55. Kg5 Qxe4 56. Bd5 Qf4+ 57. Kg6 Qg4+ 58. Kf7 Qd7+ 59. Kf8 Qf5 60. Qf7+ Kb6 61. Qb7+ Ka5 62. Qc7+ Kxa4 63. f7 d3 64. Qc4+ Ka5 65. Qc5+ Ka4 66. Qxc1 Qg4 1-0[/pgn]Feng is also a previous US Junior Girls Champion, tying for 1st in 2014.
2. Carissa Yip
3. Akshita Gorti
The Reigning Champion
Emily Nguyen
Entering last year's US Junior Girls Championship as the 6th ranked seed out of 10 players, Emily Nguyen was an underdog to win the event. She finished with three straight wins, including a victory against top seed Maggie Feng, to win clear first. Will she be able to successfully defend her title this year?Underdogs Who Could Surprise
Ashritha Eswaran
Ashritha Eswaran is another contender for the championship. She's won before (in 2015), and, during her first appearance in 2014, she won the Best Game prize.
Annie Wang
The College Competitors
Agata Bykovtsev
Agata Bykovtsev won clear 2nd in last year's US Junior Girls Championship, showing that she's a key competitor in this field. Bykovtsev hasn't played in a tournament this year (most likely because she's preparing to study at MIT in the fall), so it's hard to say where her form will be during this event.Apurva Virkud
Debuting in the Championship
Rachel Ulrich
Rachel Ulrich is a National Master from Wisconsin. Since this is her debut in the US Junior Girls Championship, it will be interesting to see how she does against this very strong field.Thalia Cervantes
Thalia Cervantes is a very active tournament player both in classical and rapid time controls. Between the two, she's played in 18 events this year. In 2016, she won the All-Girls National U-16 Championship, and, this year, she earned bronze in the All-Girls U-18 Championship. Look out for updates throughout the event on the US Chess Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram! For more information on the U.S. Junior Championship and to watch live games and commentary, visit the Official Website. The U.S. Junior Closed runs from July 8-17.Categories
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